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The Iowa caucus. |
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agentwhale007 
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Forum's Noam Chomsky Joined: 20 June 2002 Location: Statesboro, GA Status: Offline Points: 12014 |
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 Topic: The Iowa caucus.Posted: 03 January 2012 at 3:27pm |
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It has descended upon us.
Anyone have any last-minute predictions or thoughts? Romney is sitting at 24 percent, Ron Paul at 22 percent. It goes Santorum after that, then Gingrich, Perry and Bachman. I think Huntsman is still in it at some point but it's without cause. I'd imagine it's probably Romney's to lose, as quite a bit of Ron Paul's support tends to be more vocal than localized, but I could be wrong with such close numbers. And, you never know, Santorum may make a splash and mess up the whole thing.
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mbro
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Posted: 03 January 2012 at 4:40pm |
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Nate Silver is predicting that the Standard Registrars final poll they released showing the Santorum Surge (blech) is probably going to sway a large amount of the currently undecided caucuser's. It always seems like he's usually right more often than he is wrong.
I'm thinking it'll be Romney, Santorum, Paul, Gengrich, Bachmann, Perry, Huntsman. Perry will drop out either right before or after Florida. Bachmann will drag it out as long as she can in hopes of a Romney VP spot. |
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Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos. |
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stratoaxe
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Posted: 03 January 2012 at 6:00pm |
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Agreed with MBro.
I think that overall, as far as the national scene goes, it'll be Romney and Gingrich. I don't see the "anybody but Romney" bit carrying over after Iowa, simply because the Republican party needs to get behind somebody and that person will likely be Romney or Gingrich. I just don't see Gingricg holding out, the man has enough skeletons in his closet to populate a museum. As much as I love Romney, however, if I were forced to put a paycheck on the race I'd probably play it safe with Obama. I think that there are lots of elements that have the potential of disrupting a Republican win including a "surprise" third party swap from one of the GOP hopefuls and the fact that many people equate Romney and Obama's healthcare plan together which could both push voters to an independent and fail to pull swing voters. But I think it'll be a good race to watch regardless. |
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Rofl_Mao
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Posted: 03 January 2012 at 6:04pm |
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I hope Gingrich doesn't come close to winning. Theres something about him that I don't trust, he just seems vague and chincy.
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stratoaxe
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Posted: 03 January 2012 at 7:01pm |
Gingrich strikes me as an old line politician...that translates to our generation as "sleazy". |
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agentwhale007
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Forum's Noam Chomsky Joined: 20 June 2002 Location: Statesboro, GA Status: Offline Points: 12014 |
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Posted: 03 January 2012 at 8:16pm |
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As I pull open CNN's county-by-county map and wait the results, I cannot help but notice that all of the counties are square. That's really weird to me.
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ammolord
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Posted: 03 January 2012 at 8:26pm |
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Yep, it will be interesting to see what the county im from will show. Im definatly gonna be checking to see what they say.
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PSN Tag: AmmoLord
XBL: xXAmmoLordXx ~Minister of Tinkering With Things That Go "BOOM!"(AKA Minister of Munitions)~ |
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agentwhale007
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Forum's Noam Chomsky Joined: 20 June 2002 Location: Statesboro, GA Status: Offline Points: 12014 |
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Posted: 03 January 2012 at 8:49pm |
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Get some soap, votes for Santorum are flowing in!
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stratoaxe
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Posted: 03 January 2012 at 9:03pm |
Yeah that's a clean map for sure  This is gonna be a crazy run. That's some mighty random results.
Edited by stratoaxe - 03 January 2012 at 9:05pm |
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agentwhale007
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Posted: 03 January 2012 at 9:15pm |
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It's looking like a three-way tie between Romney, Santorum and Paul.
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ammolord
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Posted: 03 January 2012 at 9:42pm |
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Looks like right now Worth isnt reporting, but Cerro Gordo is showing romeny. Why am I not overly suprised by either?
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PSN Tag: AmmoLord
XBL: xXAmmoLordXx ~Minister of Tinkering With Things That Go "BOOM!"(AKA Minister of Munitions)~ |
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brihard
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Posted: 03 January 2012 at 11:00pm |
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Gotta love Urban Dictionary today. :D
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"Abortion is not "choice" in America. It is forced and the democrats are behind it, with the goal of eugenics at its foundation."
-FreeEnterprise, 21 April 2011. Yup, he actually said that. |
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agentwhale007
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Posted: 04 January 2012 at 12:01am |
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Perry is out.
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stratoaxe
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Posted: 04 January 2012 at 12:02am |
Understatement of the new year. |
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stratoaxe
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Posted: 04 January 2012 at 2:04am |
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Drudge says 29,944 to 29,926 Santorum / Romney respectively. Wow.
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Kayback
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Posted: 04 January 2012 at 2:45am |
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What's the margin of error in the counting?
That sounds below it. KBK |
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Pedicabo ego vos et irrumabo. H = 2
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mbro
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Posted: 04 January 2012 at 9:13am |
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Gah, the only thing I had wrong was Perry and Bachman.
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Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos. |
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agentwhale007
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Forum's Noam Chomsky Joined: 20 June 2002 Location: Statesboro, GA Status: Offline Points: 12014 |
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Posted: 04 January 2012 at 10:53am |
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Fox has Romney winning Iowa by eight votes and taking 13 delegates to Santorum's 12. Paul comes in third, but doesn't get any delegates.
Now, to gaze into my crystal ball: Paul will stick in the race, and probably finish third in New Hampshire. This will be Santorum's last stand as a candidate, methinks. He'll be lucky to come in fourth or fifth in New Hampshire. He could get a bump in South Carolina, provided that the momentum from New Hampshire isn't too much to sway it. New Hampshire is the heartland of neoliberal Republicans, of which, Romney is the king. I think there is a good enough chance that Newt Gingrich could get second place in New Hampshire because of his neoliberal focus. I'm surprised Bachmann is staying in the race, honestly. Her really only hope was getting a big jump from Iowa, because it won't get any better for her in New Hampshire or South Carolina. She's just burning money at this point. Perry is headed back to Texas, which is good for everyone involved. Huntsman is staying in it long enough to see if he can be considered for the VP position, which will be tough. He doesn't balance out a Romney ticket very well at all, with them both being moderates, and they are both Mormon. But, look at who else Romney has to pick from. If/when Romney picks up the official nomination, I'd not be surprised a single bit if he asks Chris Christie to be the VP and Christe accepts.
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agentwhale007
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Posted: 04 January 2012 at 11:13am |
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And as I typed that, Bachmann has canceled her South Carolina trips and scheduled a press conference.
I think she's out.
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impulse418
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Posted: 04 January 2012 at 11:20am |
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Glad Paul didn't win Iowa. Iowa always picks the loser.
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Rofl_Mao wrote: