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Best elections data available. |
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agentwhale007
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Topic: Best elections data available.Posted: 27 September 2012 at 3:02pm |
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I figured since we're just shy of one month out, it'd link to FiveThirtyEight.com, probably the best continuously-updating collection of aggregated elections/polling data available.
Now that I know things about survey research and statistics, I feel like I appreciate Silver's work way more this election than last election.
Edited by agentwhale007 - 27 September 2012 at 3:02pm |
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FreeEnterprise
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Posted: 27 September 2012 at 3:59pm |
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Why does the major media keep posting polls that are +9 democrat?...
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They tremble at my name...
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oldpbnoob
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Posted: 27 September 2012 at 4:07pm |
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"When I grow up I want to marry a rich man and live in a condor next to the beach" -- My 7yr old daughter.
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stratoaxe
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Posted: 27 September 2012 at 8:59pm |
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If I've been reading correctly, the Rasmussen poll is the only one not giving.Obama the 9 point lead.
I know nothing of reliability when it comes to polls because I find polling in general to be a very unscientific method of reporting anything, but I don't know why you'd pick the one dissenting poll out of a half dozen others to report on. |
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FreeEnterprise
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Posted: 28 September 2012 at 11:03am |
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No, you guys are missing what I am saying.
The polls have been weaponized to help Obama. Just like the "fact checks" are so partisan now a days, that they almost always slam on the Republican while repeating democratic talking points. If you are going to do a poll, you are supposed to mimic what you will see on election day. These polls that show Obama up are only because they are skewing the number of democrats voting vs the number of independents and republicans... For example In 2004 the vote was R+4. In 2008 the vote was D+3 CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9. So 9 more democrats will vote than before according to our "non" partisan polling... That has never happened. EVER. And yet, they don't publicize that fact, they just say, hey look Obama is up by 9... because we skewed the poll to have 9 more democrats than have ever voted... In 2004 the vote was R+5 In 2008 the vote was D+8 CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9 In 2010 the vote was D+3 In 2008 the vote was D+7 CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9. So by asking more democrats in a poll, shockingly they get more people voting for Obama... Problem is, the independents are swinging towards Romney. They do this to make republicans think they are done for, and hope that less will show up to actually vote... Or figure, "ah, it doesn't matter, Obama has it in the bag". When as usual they are just throwing out propaganda, and you guys buy it like it was polls in the old days before it became something controlled by the left. Oh btw, if Obama doesn't like your companies polling numbers. The justice department might open an investigation into your company. http://markets.cbsnews.com/cbsnews/news/read/22211431/daily_caller |
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They tremble at my name...
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evillepaintball
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Posted: 28 September 2012 at 1:27pm |
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http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/19/obama-has-edge-over-romney-in-three-battleground-states/
Fox polls are showing almost the same thing, but whatever helps you sleep at night.
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usafpilot07
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Posted: 28 September 2012 at 2:29pm |
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This is what happens when the GOP nominates a joke of a republican. Sigh
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FreeEnterprise
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Posted: 28 September 2012 at 3:16pm |
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No, this is what happens when people skew the numbers. There is no way that democrats will outvote republicans by +9. It has never happened.
The liberals want you to think Romney is a poor candidate. He isn't, that is just the media bias skewing your opinion. I wonder who fox news donates too?... hmm. but, but, but, I thought fox was conservative... The media wants Obama to win. They will do anything in their power to make that happen. Period.
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They tremble at my name...
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usafpilot07
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Posted: 28 September 2012 at 3:29pm |
Wait, what? I don't watch mainstream news. My opinion of Mitt Romney is entirely my own. I'm more than capable of deciding my own feelings about a candidates track record, I even have a shiny, worthless degree that says I went to college to understand it. Spew all the conspiracies you want, but don't delude yourself into believing that everyone who isn't in lockstep with you is some brainwashed sheep of the left or the media. |
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FreeEnterprise
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Posted: 28 September 2012 at 3:54pm |
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It isn't that at all, remember that book I mentioned last year about how our viewpoints on politics are skewed by the media. Well our perception of republicans is also skewed by the same information.
that is what I was talking about. I wasn't insulting your intelligence or ability to think. I was just pointing out that you have never met Romney, and yet you have a distinct view of him... That view you have was shaped by the media coverage you have seen of the guy...
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usafpilot07
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Posted: 28 September 2012 at 4:05pm |
My views on him are based solely on his track record as a CEO and governor. I don't watch debates, actions speak louder than words. Romney has done nothing to impress upon me that he's any better than the dead weight we have in office right now. Am I going to vote for Barry? Hell no. But am I going to vote for Romney? I don't know. |
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FreeEnterprise
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Posted: 28 September 2012 at 4:11pm |
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What negative actions as a CEO did he do to make you think that?
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usafpilot07
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Posted: 28 September 2012 at 4:26pm |
It would actually be his actions as a governor outweighing his actions as a CEO 30 years ago. |
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FreeEnterprise
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Posted: 28 September 2012 at 4:48pm |
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Why did you say his CEO track record then?...
What actions did you disagree with when he ran his state? I'm not picking on you, I'm actually curious.
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usafpilot07
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Posted: 28 September 2012 at 6:09pm |
Because his success as a consultant and CEO are part of what I take into consideration when evaluating how I feel about the candidate for "my" party. I don't want to write a book about the faults I find with Mitt, but I'll jot down at least a few things.
I won't even start discussing the disaster of a healthcare system he spearheaded in Massachusetts, or the fact that it was at least partially an effort to keep his state dependent on Medicaid. Edited by usafpilot07 - 28 September 2012 at 9:20pm |
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jmac3
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Posted: 28 September 2012 at 9:11pm |
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Oh hi USAF. Thank you for not being as lazy as me and saying that about Romney.
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Que pasa?
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StormyKnight
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Posted: 01 October 2012 at 4:36pm |
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Mitt Romney bumper sticker:
I'm not a Conservative, but I campaign like one.
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kendall
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Posted: 01 October 2012 at 6:15pm |
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Vote for me. I hate almost everyone. Now that's progressive.
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FreeEnterprise
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Posted: 02 October 2012 at 11:46am |
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Regardless of what Mitt has done, it is still so much better than more Obama...
Oh lookie, people think the polls are propaganda at alarming rates. I wonder why they think that?... "Under oath, Hickman admitted that in the final weeks of Edwards's 2008 bid, Hickman cherry-picked public polls to make the candidate seem viable, promoted surveys that Hickman considered unreliable, and sent e-mails to campaign aides, Edwards supporters and reporters which argued that the former senator was still in the hunt —even though Hickman had already told Edwards privately that he had no real chance of winning the Democratic nomination. "They were pounding on me for positive information. You know, where is some good news we can share with people? We were monitoring all these polls and I was sending the ones that were most favorable because [campaign aides] wanted to share them with reporters," Hickman testified on May 14 at the trial in Greensboro, N.C. "We were not finding very much good news and I was trying to give them what I could find." Hickman testified that when circulating the polls, he didn't much care if they were accurate. "I didn't necessarily take any of these as for—as you would say, for the truth of the matter. I took them more as something that could be used as propaganda for the campaign," the veteran pollster said." |
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Lightningbolt
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Posted: 02 October 2012 at 12:07pm |
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These people are going to lie and skew and we know this.waste of time listening to them.
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