2016 Primaries |
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oldsoldier
Moderator Group Crazy old guy Joined: 10 June 2002 Status: Offline Points: 6725 |
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We must remember the role of the electoral college. To ensure the people od all the states are represented in national elections. If we went pure popular vote only 5 states would essentially pick the president. When 5 states by population outnumber the remaining how is that a true representation of the vote. The flyover states will have no voice but yet will have to 'pay' based on that 5 state majority vote...would make today's gamesmanship kids games.
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usafpilot07
Moderator Group FreeEnterprise's #1 Fan & Potty Mouth Joined: 31 August 2004 Location: Tokelau Status: Offline Points: 4626 |
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As someone who early on wouldn't have hated Rubio, the last few debates/interviews I've seen with him have really changed my mind. I'd probably even rather have Cruz than him.
Him explaining his tax plan tonight (which heavily leans on tax breaks for those with children) really rubbed me the wrong way.
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Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo
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rednekk98
Moderator Group Dead man... Joined: 02 July 2002 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8995 |
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I'd be all for a movement for delegates to be proportional instead of winner-take-all. Right now my vote just doesn't count. But the parties hate that.
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agentwhale007
Moderator Group Forum's Noam Chomsky Joined: 20 June 2002 Location: Statesboro, GA Status: Offline Points: 12014 |
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Barring some kind of weird surprise on Super Tuesday, it's hard not to see Donald Trump winning the GOP nomination. The theory has been that as other candidates drop, their supporters will go over to either Rubio or Cruz. But when Jeb dropped, that didn't happen in any available polling data. And Christie has now come out to endorse Trump, meaning a good chunk of his ~6% will go to Trump.
The two biggest states on his plate are Florida and Texas, the home states for his competition. He's running away with Florida, and he's managed to almost tie Cruz in Texas. So as absolutely bizarre as it is, yeah, Donald Trump will probably represent the GOP in November. The Democrats are a little closer if you look at national polling data: Clinton is only ahead by 6 points. But that doesn't tell the whole story. Clinton is beating Sanders in delegates 505-71: Despite the fact that Sanders and Clinton tied in Iowa, Sanders blew out New Hampshire, and Clinton won Nevada by only a handful of percentage points, Clinton is leading with the super-delegates -- folks who can put their vote toward any candidate regardless of how the state votes. So it's hard to see a mathematical way Sanders win this, despite him making up so much ground. |
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agentwhale007
Moderator Group Forum's Noam Chomsky Joined: 20 June 2002 Location: Statesboro, GA Status: Offline Points: 12014 |
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I don't know if this is the point you were trying to make, but super-delegates are not a part of the U.S. Electoral College. They're a concept only really used by the individual parties in the primary process, which have only recently been turned into a legally binding process. And even then, they only really ever have an impact with the Democratic Party, as they have assigned over 700 people to the super-delegate system, whereas the Republicans only have about 100. |
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agentwhale007
Moderator Group Forum's Noam Chomsky Joined: 20 June 2002 Location: Statesboro, GA Status: Offline Points: 12014 |
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I tend to agree with you in spirit -- I think a proportional system is needed to keep campaigning more relevant in all states. But the counter to what you said is that essentially about five states pick the president as it is. Only a handful of states are ever going to be viably contested in a given election year. No Democrat is going to waste much time campaigning in Texas. No Republican is going to waste much time campaigning in Massachusetts. Consistently though, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Pennsylvania decide who becomes president. The swing states shift over time, but there are always a handful of swing states. What I think the important part of the Electoral College is, rather than what you said, is that it equalizes the entire state vs. the urban center. Because it comes down to the popular vote per-each-state, more value is also placed on campaigning to the issues of the whole state -- things that impact cities and agricultural/rural. |
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tallen702
Moderator Group Hipster before Hipster was cool... Joined: 10 June 2002 Location: Under Your Bed Status: Offline Points: 11850 |
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You are correct in your assumption. I've got to ask though, what does that say about the "party of the people" if they take so much of the outcome out of the hands of the people? |
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<Removed overly wide sig. Tsk, you know better.>
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deadeye007
Moderator Group Has Mod powers, isn't able to use them. Joined: 12 June 2002 Location: Your Face Status: Offline Points: 13822 |
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I find it funny that Bernie worked hard to receive the votes, but the system took the delegates from him and gave them someone that didn't deserve it.
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Face it guys, common sense is a form of wealth and we're surrounded by poverty.-Strato
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agentwhale007
Moderator Group Forum's Noam Chomsky Joined: 20 June 2002 Location: Statesboro, GA Status: Offline Points: 12014 |
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That their party got almost hijacked one time by southern Dixiecrats, from Thurmond to Wallace, and the party reacted by using super-delegates as a stopgap to help keep that from happening.
I think the number they have right now is probably too many, but I totally understand the need of having super-delegates. |
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oldsoldier
Moderator Group Crazy old guy Joined: 10 June 2002 Status: Offline Points: 6725 |
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This whole election is an exercise in idiocy. Hillary has bought and paid for the Democrat nomination with the Super Delagate gamesmanship, she will not repeat 2008, Bernie never had a chance. And talk about a democratic process, Democrats get no choice, and never really had a choice.
The GOP is no better, too bad there is no unified front against Trump, the majority support everyone else, but no unified stance so Trump will prevail, unfortunately. So we are down to the usual vote against not for election in November, I will as usual hold my nose and vote ABC (anyone but Clinton). Did drive by the Bernie rally in downtown Lincoln Saturday, was a hoot you would think it was 1968 all over again. Strange crowd of new wanna-be hippies, and old gray haired never got the memo 60's are over hippies. Still asking the same question to the local Bernie supporters, who is going to pay for all this free stuff when you run out of wealthy people to tax, ala Venezuela. This all 'works' till you run out of other peoples money.................. |
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StormyKnight
Moderator Group Joined: 28 July 2003 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3129 |
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Iron knee
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agentwhale007
Moderator Group Forum's Noam Chomsky Joined: 20 June 2002 Location: Statesboro, GA Status: Offline Points: 12014 |
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Ironically, it looks like Hillary will now get enough delegates to win outright without much need from super-delegates, whereas the Republicans will most likely rely on de-pledged delegates at the convention to stop Donald Trump.
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agentwhale007
Moderator Group Forum's Noam Chomsky Joined: 20 June 2002 Location: Statesboro, GA Status: Offline Points: 12014 |
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Well, barring some kind of asteroid situation, it looks like it'll be Trump v. Hillary, now that Cruz has dropped out.
Which pretty much means it'll be President Hillary Clinton, considering how well Trump polls, even now, against her. |
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