I find this whole thing very disturbing as well. I also think we'd have a problem getting Iran even sanctioned by the security council. Russia and China don't give a crap, even if Iran did develope a nuke and use it against Israel, they'd say "Bad Iran!" and continue trading with them. China is too focused on feeding it's growing economy, and Russia won't pass up a buck trading with them. Russia had no problem trading with Iraq when it was under sanctions. For a former communist country they sure got the grasp of capitalism fast.

I'm not too clear on what exactly Iran plans to do in retaliation if they get sanctioned. If they do shut off the tap on oil and gas, I'd be totally willing to pay extra at the pump(and probably on everything else) to keep them from going nuclear. If they resorted to terrorist actions or military ones, it'd be a perfect excuse for Israel to bomb the living crap out of them.

On the downside, if Israel does bomb their nuclear sites, they're burried so deep it would take so many sorties to reach them. Also, with the range of their aircraft, their pilots would be making one-way trips.

I think the UN security council needs to be overhauled big time. The five permanant members were of course the big winners of WWII. However, France has become irrelevant since then, and Japan and Germany would certainly have good arguements for inclusion. Also, India makes up about one fith of humanity, I think they should be included. Boot France, add Germany, India, and Japan.

I can't stand Iran, they'll probably start WW3.

DBibeau855 wrote: Funny thing is, i called that Iran was next on our hitlist like two years. I think i was torn between north korea and iran, but decided on Iran because north koreas shtick was only about saving face.

If they invade Iran or N Korea they will probably issue a draft.

Shorty, in a situation like that I doubt Israel would give a crap if I got fly over rights. They'd say they're going to fly over and probably shoot back at anyone who gave them crap. The situation would just be too grave for them to mess around with that sort of stuff.

Iran will not invade Isreal, even if they could, the Israelis would beat them back. Israel is a tough country. Look at what they deal with on a daily basis. also, they no that if Iran or any other Muslim country did suceed in taking over Isael, it would end in massive genocide. either state sanctioned or the military losing control of its troops. It would be fight or die.

No doubt they will boost their support for Iraqi insurgents, which is the worst thing I really see them doing if sanctioned. That would majorly suck for us of course, and if they could push us out they'd almost certainly invade Iraq themselves. But if we catch them sneaking stuff across the border, you better bet we'll retaliate militarily. In turn, they'll probably shoot rockets into Israel. We will not be able to stop Israel from responding. One of our concerns in invading Iraq was that Iraq would manage to use chem or bio weapons against Israel, and Israel probably would have nuked them. If there are any two countries who are pig headed enough to actually use nuclear weapons, they are Iran and Israel. Besides, if Iran had nukes, the rest of the muslim world doesn't get along too well with them. They'd all want their own too. We really can't afford a nuclearized middle-east. Lots of people would get vaporized sooner or later.

No doubt we'll see more Sunni Iraqis joining the Iraqi military. Both so they have control over aspects of Iraq, and to counter Shi'ite Persian insurgents. Iraq and Iran still have a lot of bad blood. If Iraq's military ever is able to rebuild itself, another US backed Iran-Iraq War seems totally plausable. If it comes down to military action, expect a lot of the burden to be born by other countries. We'll sell Israel bunker busters and maybe better planes, and back Iraqi troops in border conflicts or even a possible invasion.

Iran is still a wildcard. They could concievable Invade Iraq outright to "liberate" it from US occupation. With the growing distaste for the Iraq war at home, the ineffectivness of the Iraqi government to quell the insurgency, and the simmering civil war in Iraq, they would stand a decent shot of winning too.

Benjichang wrote: djrox wrote: DBibeau855 wrote: Funny thing is, i called that Iran was next on our hitlist like two years. I think i was torn between north korea and iran, but decided on Iran because north koreas shtick was only about saving face. If they invade Iran or N Korea they will probably issue a draft. I doubt they'll ever try another draft after Vietnam.

I understand your point, but why? If they needed the extra men to invade separate countries, then they will probably do it. And I think the recruiting goals are not being met.

What Benji said.  If the US were invaded or WWIII broke out, or there were some other absolutely indisputable need for massive military action RIGHT NOW, then we would have a draft right fast. 

A draft for the purpose of generally bolstering the military, or to continue the rather controversial war in Iraq, or to start another controversial war in Iran - it would never make it through Congress, and even if it did there would be riots in the streets.

Of course we've caught Iranians in Iraq and made connections .Ryan, but I'm taking bombing staging areas on the other site of the border in retaliation. Like, if we get fed up enough and see trucks heading for the border at night with their lights out, calling in an AC-130 gunship to blow them to hell. If fact, we just sent the gunships back over there.

As for a draft, I don't see it happening. It'd be political suicide. Also, if say, Iran invaded Iraq and spouted out an equivalant to the US Monroe Doctrine and the Roosevelt Corallary to justify, the war would be over, one way or another, before the new recruits would be deployable. If we managed to get bogged down in Iran and faced a real geurilla war that was such that sending more troops would be effective, and not just provide more targets, AND N.K looked like it needed to be dealt with, we'd probably have a draft. But I bet we'd pull out of Iraq and let Iran have it before that happened.

ANARCHY_SCOUT wrote: djrox wrote: I can't stand Iran, they'll probably start WW3. And the possibilitie of the termination of the entire human race. IF you really think about it with the weapons that we are capable of using against each other there will be no need for ground troups. Ground troups wont even be there nor will there even be civilians we will all be dead the power of all the worlds WMD's will destroy us all if another world war starts. May we have luck that Iran doesnt pull something extremly stupid and force us into another war because I can see the downfall of the entire planet.

I really don't see a situation like that happening, even if there were a nuclear exchange with Iran. Chances are good that like China and North Korea, they won't have a whole lot of warheads. Maybe they could crank out 20 or so. Also, the missles they do have now don't have the range to be considered ICMBs. Chances are good that if it ever did turn into a really nasty shooting war with nukes, about the worst that could happen would be Iran nuking Israel, Israel nuking them back(not much is know about Israel's nuclear capability. They may have about hundred bombs, but I have no clue about ballistic missles). Iran might also nuke our bases in Saudi Arabia, Iraq or elsewhere in the are, so we'd nuke them too. Maybe Pakistan and India would decide to nuke each other just for the hell of it to make the situation worse.

I don't see Russia, China or the US being affected much by this. Russia and China would probably get some fallout, but historically they haven't really given a crap about a few thousand civilian casulties. It would be a smaller exchange than what would be required to create a nuclear winter. The fact that it wouldn't be devestating to the entire planet makes it all the more likely that it could happen. If people see a nuclear war to be winable, it puts it on the table as a real option.

The nuclear genie has been out of the bottle for 50 years. I find the fact that there have only been two nuclear devices triggered in anger since then amazing. Expect at least another two this century.