Now they have done it.
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Forum Name: Thoughts and Opinions
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Topic: Now they have done it.
Posted By: oldsoldier
Subject: Now they have done it.
Date Posted: 29 March 2010 at 5:25pm
The IUslamic radicals have awakened the Russian Bear, and the Russians are not know for patience and a stand off attitude. Look at the way they handled the Chetznia(sp) problem. Spetnaz and regualr army troops just came in and did thier thing, ruthlessly and sending a message.
Putin is looking fore a reason to send his military back into Afghanistan and 'prove' that the 80's were justified and this time gloves are off. Russia will lash out if Mother Russia is attacked, and the populace will support any action after Mother Russia is attacked.
NAtionalizm is a Russian trait, and thier Military needs to flex its muscle once again to be credible on the world stage.
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Replies:
Posted By: brihard
Date Posted: 29 March 2010 at 6:14pm
Great. Another pretext for Russia to launch a bloody, catastrophic, and ultimately ineffective 'counterinsurgency' (if you can call massacring civilians that).
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Posted By: ParielIsBack
Date Posted: 29 March 2010 at 6:52pm
The Russians haven't been any better than us, and perhaps have been worse, at crushing the Islamic insurgency that's actually spread further than when they began fighting it.
I do not see a good ending here.
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Posted By: Gatyr
Date Posted: 29 March 2010 at 6:58pm
oldsoldier wrote:
The IUslamic radicals have awakened the Russian Bear, |
Link? I haven't heard anything about this.
EDIT: Found http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/30/world/europe/30moscow.html - this.
But I also found out about a train derailment that was considered terrorism that happened last year. What makes you believe that this will cause more of a reaction?
RE-EDIT: Just found out Chechen terrorists are Islamic, and Russian response to Chechen attacks has been horrific; the more you know...
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Posted By: __sneaky__
Date Posted: 29 March 2010 at 7:00pm
Russia flexing its muscles never ends well.
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Posted By: usafpilot07
Date Posted: 29 March 2010 at 7:01pm
Gatyr wrote:
oldsoldier wrote:
The IUslamic radicals have awakened the Russian Bear, |
Link? I haven't heard anything about this.
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http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&oi=news_result&ct=res&cd=1&ved=0CAYQqQIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fworldnews%2Feurope%2Frussia%2F7535951%2FMoscow-bombing-Russia-braced-for-new-wave-of-terror-attacks.html&rct=j&q=attack+in+russia&ei=ITGxS_WeJIGclge1vvG6AQ&usg=AFQjCNH02SZE4LmcWe2Gr-qhAZ5iyQoSpg - http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&oi=news_result&ct=res&cd=1&ved=0CAYQqQIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fworldnews%2Feurope%2Frussia%2F7535951%2FMoscow-bombing-Russia-braced-for-new-wave-of-terror-attacks.html&rct=j&q=attack+in+russia&ei=ITGxS_WeJIGclge1vvG6AQ&usg=AFQjCNH02SZE4LmcWe2Gr-qhAZ5iyQoSpg
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Posted By: oldsoldier
Date Posted: 30 March 2010 at 10:05am
BY all accounts Putin has put the Military as well as Law Enforcement into erradicate mode. And yes the innocent will suffer as with the guilty in a typical Russian 'Purge' of the Islamic Terror Threat within Mother Russia. Russian Nationalism is in full swing, the media is in full support mode, and the traditional Russian patriotic music is again blaring on the streets. Any try to 'hold back' the Russian intelligence services (the old KGB types) or the Russian Military by diplomacy will fall on deaf ears, there will be a typical Russian approach to an attack on 'Mother Russia'.
This is not going to go well for the Islamic peoples of Russia, and wherever the Russian Military decides the threat is greatest. Afghanistan is my bet, as we would call it 'unfinished bussiness'.
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Posted By: Gatyr
Date Posted: 30 March 2010 at 12:39pm
oldsoldier wrote:
BY all accounts Putin has put the Military as well as Law Enforcement into erradicate mode. And yes the innocent will suffer as with the guilty in a typical Russian 'Purge' of the Islamic Terror Threat within Mother Russia. Russian Nationalism is in full swing, the media is in full support mode, and the traditional Russian patriotic music is again blaring on the streets. Any try to 'hold back' the Russian intelligence services (the old KGB types) or the Russian Military by diplomacy will fall on deaf ears, there will be a typical Russian approach to an attack on 'Mother Russia'. |
Eerily similar to some other country, ya?
And I don't think Russia will go to Afghanistan to flex their muscle while the US and UN have troops there. I imagine they would be greatly limited on what they could do versus what they wanted to do if there are Europeans/American in the way.
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Posted By: oldsoldier
Date Posted: 30 March 2010 at 12:46pm
Afghanistan is a direct threat across a comman border, not thousands of miles away. And a direct highway to Pakistan, where the hides are. The Russians are not known for respecting other militarys that are co-operating. Look at Germany from 1944-1989. The Russian Military is ramping up, and Putin wants to again be a big player on the world stage, a few US and UN troops will not stop the Russians in persuing enemies of 'Mother Russia' we can co-operate or get out of the way, the only options Putin will put forth.
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Posted By: ParielIsBack
Date Posted: 30 March 2010 at 12:49pm
I'm pretty sure the likelihood of the Russians going into Afghanistan right now is minimal.
That said, I see a high chance of lots of dead Chechans in the coming months.
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Posted By: SSOK
Date Posted: 30 March 2010 at 12:58pm
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The thing that worries me about seeing Igor tearing through the Middle East, is that the Ruskies will undo all that we have done in the last years.
If the Russians begin slaying Islam, all that will happen is you will have AlQuaida (sp) recruiting by the thousands...
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Posted By: ParielIsBack
Date Posted: 30 March 2010 at 1:10pm
My brother just posted this on another forum we frequent, thought some might be interested in it:
BloodBane611 wrote:
I'm currently taking a course with one of the few western experts on the
Soviet/Russian intelligence services who has actually studied in the
the russian archives, and of course we got to talking about this today.
It's a tragic situation, and I'm sad to see civilians caught in the
crossfire, but in the next few days/weeks there will certainly be deadly
reprisals by the FSB and possibly other Russian agencies. Violence on
the part of resistance fighters has always been met with violence from
the Russian government, and not just since 1917. I'm not very interested
in giving a Russian history lesson, but violent reprisals have been a
huge part of Russian governance at least since the time of Ivan the
Terrible and the oprichnina, and a case could be made that they started
before that.
Specifically on the Chechen question, violence against the chechens (and
many other ethnic groups) became an intrinsic national policy during
the Second World War, with the deportation of at least half a million
Chechens, a deportation which included mass killings and widespread
attempts to destroy chechen culture through the destruction of chechen
libraries ( http://jch.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/42/2/267 - source - pp 39-40 is most relevant, but the entire
paper is quite interesting for those who care). This was a state
security operation with the express purpose of destroying chechen rebel
groups opposed to soviet rule in Chechnya, and who were supported by the
broad majority of the population. This deportation operation was of
course followed by the importation of ethnic russians, who were not
considered a security threat. The fact that there are still 100,000
ethnic russians in Chechnya should surprise no one, as they were put in
place by the Soviet government to create a stable and reliable base of
support in the country.
I do agree that the FSB has been reasonably successful in preventing
terrorist acts against russia (as was the KGB and the other soviet
intelligence services before them), but the cost in terms of human lives
has historically been very high. Of course the FSB is not going to
publish a list of the people it assassinates in order to prevent
terrorist attacks, but assassinations continue to be an important part
of FSB operations (for example, the assassination of Alexander
Litvinenko in London).
Ultimately, the question is whether these terrorists represent the
legitimate feelings of the Chechens or not. I do think that question has
not been fully answered, and that we don't have the kind of objective
information required to actually answer it. Certainly the Russian
government (and Russian backed Chechen government) have an interest in
maintaining the appearance of broad based support for their government
(which may or may not be real), but the Chechen people are not in
outright rebellion. I do think that the Chechen President, Ramzan
Kadyrov, is one serious *person*, and the fact is that he was installed
by the personal fiat of Putin rather than by a democratic vote. While
that doesn't lead me to believe that the Chechen people are necessarily
against being part of Russia, they certainly are not being ruled in a
democratic way. |
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Posted By: Kayback
Date Posted: 30 March 2010 at 1:18pm
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Since when has Afghanistan been the worlds hub of Islam? They should nuke Mecca.
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Posted By: tallen702
Date Posted: 30 March 2010 at 1:21pm
Facepalm.jpg
You know, this doesn't happen very often, so mark it on your calendars. I'm going to say it. Pariell is right.
The Russians becoming involved militarily in Afghanistan is about as likely as us getting involved militarily in Vietnam right now. For starters, they learned their lesson down there over a period of a decade or so the hard way. They ultimately ran into the same problems that we've been running into which is that fighting in Afghanistan is a protracted siege on natural fortifications (mountains) which costs a hell of a lot of men and material to win.
Secondly, the bombings didn't come from the AQ/Taliban. They were initiated by the Chechen separatists. How do we know this when it hasn't been confirmed in the media? Well, it was two women suicide bombers (a Chechen calling card) attacking the Lubyanka and Palace of Culture stations (the FSB [formerly KGB] is stationed in/around Lubyanka) through the rail transit system (again a Chechen calling card). What this is ultimately going to mean is that the FSB and Spetsnaz are going to be a bit busier than usual. If anything, I would expect Russia to be particularly scrutinizing of Georgia as it's about the only place the Chechen rebels have to run. If anything, I think you'll see a few strategic missile strikes by the Russians at suspected Chechen holdouts, and possibly a raid or two if they find any high-priority targets of intelligence.
Your resident Russophile,
Tallen702
/thread
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Posted By: mod98commando
Date Posted: 30 March 2010 at 1:21pm
SSOK wrote:
The thing that worries me about seeing Igor tearing through the Middle East, is that the Ruskies will undo all that we have done in the last years.
If the Russians begin slaying Islam, all that will happen is you will have AlQuaida (sp) recruiting by the thousands... |
I agree. If they're gonna swing the hammer, they better make sure all of Al Qaida is under it or it'll be like swatting at a bee hive.
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Posted By: ParielIsBack
Date Posted: 30 March 2010 at 2:28pm
tallen702 wrote:
You know, this doesn't happen very often, so mark it on your calendars. I'm going to say it. Pariell is right. |
I'ma need everyone to make big signs and celebrate this event with cake for at least the next coupla years.
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