Ukraine (Get in here Tallen)
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Topic: Ukraine (Get in here Tallen)
Posted By: impulse418
Subject: Ukraine (Get in here Tallen)
Date Posted: 01 March 2014 at 2:39am
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So Russia was either invited or they invited themselves. Explain like I'm 5, Ukraine's history and future.
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Replies:
Posted By: SSOK
Date Posted: 01 March 2014 at 9:19am
Most of the country wanted to become more aligned with the West, with a smaller percentage including the president wanting to continue to be under Putins sphere of influence. Protesters oust president, hang out in his former house, with about 3/4 of the population supporting that. President exiles in Russia, then old Vladimir sends in some troops to take over an airport and surrounding area.
Best part is the Russian military isn't identifying themselves at all. News filming them and everything, no name tapes or insignia. Those meddling kids in the west and their Internet are preventing some Prague Spring type of stuff.
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Posted By: Rofl_Mao
Date Posted: 01 March 2014 at 2:55pm
I found it interesting how Putin looked Obama in the eye and basically said "F you." when Obama said there would be actions to what Russia is doing.
I'm going to say it: Obama is weak.
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Posted By: tallen702
Date Posted: 01 March 2014 at 3:48pm
1) Western (especially US) media is overstating the situation of Russians in the Crimea. ABC and AP are both saying that the Russians "invaded" but they haven't. In fact, Russia hasn't sent any additional soldiers into the Crimea since Yanukovych was ousted. The legality for their presence is pretty solid at the moment. Russia rents its naval base in Sevastopol from Ukraine as well as two air stations in the peninsula as well. According to their agreement, Russian forces can come and go as they please within the Crimea, much like US forces were allowed free reign in Cuba from the base at Gitmo prior to the revolution down there. The Russians haven't forcibly taken anything, haven't declared the territory to now be "theirs" they're just sitting there, waiting.
2) The moment that the constitution is ratified and open elections are held, the Ukraine's military will jump back into the fray on the side of whoever wins and they aren't pushovers like the Georgia was in 2008. Despite the fact that the Crimean Russians will piss and moan and threaten secession, there will be a stable, trained, and well armed military in place which will be able to tell the Ruskies to scram. Furthermore, the UN is likely to take a really sharp interest in Russia's meddling in the affairs, especially since it's in direct violation of the Budapest Memorandum. Russia is using the work around of claiming that "Ethnic Russians" are in danger, but that's not going to hold water. For one thing, nobody has threatened action against them and for another, they're Ukrainian citizens, international law only provides for legal intervention if citizens of your country are in danger, not just people who have a historical tie to you are.
3) If Russia pushes any further, they'll find themselves involved in a shooting war that they can't afford. Ukraine is BIG. It's got a big population, the majority of whom are ethnic Ukrainian, and that same majority remembers the deportations, genocide, and mass starvation that Moscow perpetuated less than a century ago, and it's got a sizable and well equipped military. If this turns into a shooting war, it's going to get messy. The Chechens and Daegestanis already proved the relative weakness of the Russian military. An organized and modern military like the on in Ukraine will be a much tougher nut to crack, and in doing so, Russia will open themselves up to a re-start to the Chechen and Georgian wars. They'll be spread too thin and someone will take advantage of that fact.
4) Russia wants two things out of Ukraine. The use of the Black Sea ports for its navy, and someone to buy their gas and oil. If they go too far, then they'll get neither. Ukraine is a partnership country with NATO. While they can't invoke the charter, they can ask for help. If NATO and the UN both get involved, Russia will lose the Black Sea ports and the fuel sales both, negating any attempts to hold onto those things (which is what they're doing now).
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Posted By: tallen702
Date Posted: 01 March 2014 at 3:53pm
P.S. The history is this.
Ukraine wasn't really a country until after the split of the Soviet Union. They'd always been someone's territory, but it the Rus, Poles, Hungarians, etc. The current borders are based on the ones granted the Ukrainian SSR by the USSR back in the day.
Post WWII, Stalin deported millions of ethnic Ukrainians in an attempt to exert better control over what had proved to be one of his less loyal SSRs. He deported, starved, and murders almost half the population and then "gave" the crimea to loyal soldiers, NKVD agents, etc as a reward for their service. As such, the area is largely ethnic Russian. The soviets essentially "bred them out" as it were, by moving the people the land belonged to out, and trucking their own people in.
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Posted By: Apu
Date Posted: 01 March 2014 at 4:03pm
And Tallen once again proves he knows what's what. I don't really have much to add that tallen hasn't already, infact I learned a lot of things from his post that I wasn't aware of before, but it definitely got messy fast. A actually know somebody who lives in Kiev, one of my sisters best friends from growing up. Her father got a really, REALLY well paying engineering job over there. He recently has come down with leukemia and they had to be evacuated when the protests started up. I just hope the situation resolves itself at least enough that he can get back over there and back to work ASAP, so that at least if the unfortunate happens in his situation, he will at least make A LOT of money for the family. I mean A LOT of money, they will be set, so a lot is riding on this for them.
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Posted By: tallen702
Date Posted: 01 March 2014 at 6:12pm
Honestly, there is only one person in this whole thing who make make things worse. President Obama. If he speaks without backing it up with force, not economic sanctions or empty resolutions through the UN, it'll embolden Russia in Eastern Europe even more. I've been fairly neutral on Barry's foreign policy thus far, but his missteps with Georgia and now this situation are going to ultimately put him firmly in the realm of Carter in the history books.
Personally, I think we need to resurrect Teddy Roosevelt for 2016.
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Posted By: rednekk98
Date Posted: 02 March 2014 at 12:55am
It's been great to see this from both the Ukrainian and Russian side on social media since I have a few dozen friends on the book of face from both countries and many are politically involved to a point that puts most in the US to shame.
Cynical American Interpretation-Russia is attempting to do this quick and set up a situation on the ground that will potentially give them the Crimea by referendum considering the new laws they pushed through and tight control of media they have been able to achieve. They have legal authority from their legislature to go much farther considering that they are still recognizing the ousted President and have been creating a boogeyman out of right-wing factions in Ukraine. My gut reaction is that they will settle from some solid promises for respecting the base at Sevastopol, provided they think a candidate they think they can work with will win in the New Elections, but if the West dithers, they will annex the crap out of Crimea, and the west will probably be relieved they didn't take half the country. My bet is they get Crimea quasi-legally within the next 6 months as a best-case scenario.
Russian Putin-Youth Interpretation- Ukraine has always been aligned with Russia, but during a weakening of the Empire was overrun by Muslims, Western Europeans and others uncivilized factions, especially in the west and was corrupted. During WWII Western Ukraine sided with the Nazis (forgetting holodomor)and although some of the protestors seemed centrist, the ultra-right is really in control and wants to smash minorities everywhere and expel or otherwise eliminate ethnic Russians. The recently released former PM is a CIA operative but might be turned, and the revolution was a coup. The Berkut only fired to stay alive, or it was a false-flag CIA directed action by the opposition to blame the President. The new government is illegal, fascist-leaning, and weak. The sooner it is dealt with, the better. The protestors hired Moldovans for $30 a day to man the protest lines and the whole thing was Astroturfed. The West is offering about 20% of what Mother Russia is offering in aid, how can they be serious? The election of a new leader in the semi-autonomous Crimea at gunpoint was a fair turn considering the armed insurrection at the Maidan, is the most legitimate government in place in Ukraine. If Russia leaves, neo-nazis will beat WWII vets to death in Crimea. Annexation is the safest bet if Ukraine doesn't immediately make sever concessions and accept Russian aid, since the IMF will only give them predatory loans and West-Ukrainians will end up being plumbers and day-laborers for the West when they could be professionals in the Russian sphere.
Ethnically-Confused Ukrainian Interpretation- There was hope in the Orange revolution, leaders since then have been corrupt, the EU and US don't care too much, the right-wing is scary and a shady ally at best, war now would be a route, the economy is about to tank. New faces are untested, old faces are tainted, mom and dad's cars were burned as barriers, they can't go to work, who knows when the paychecks will stop or the gas will get cut off. Nobody knows what the military will do if tested. They feel more Ukrainian than ever, but without real acceptance by Europe or any idea of what it means to be European today, or what side is likely to extricate them from the problems that are coming fast. If the West doesn't help fast and seriously, they can always try again in 20 years....They'll take the best deal they can get, even if it means losing territory.
Summary-Putin has Ukraine in check. Unless we can offer them LNG in enough quantity, maybe drop in an airborne division as "observers" and pull some Kennedy-era stuff off, Russia gets as much as we let them, if we really miff it, they reinstate the ousted President, go back to earlier negotiations under occupation (Russian Federation "peacekeepers" and "election monitors") and the whole revolution is doomed to die a slow, quiet, death. What the Russians really want is gas sales and the Crimea bases and at least more autonomy for the regions with large Russian populations that could lead to easy annexation in the event of any further "trouble". Russia knows we are too broke to seriously piss them off with going back to the missile defense plans, and returning to that would just prove their point that it was aimed at them, not Iran. If Obama really has balls, he'd send tankers full of LNG with destroyer escort to aid since we've been fracking our brains out and try to establish ourselves as energy exporters, and offer aid with few strings to Ukraine. I'm betting his hands are too tied to do so from many angles, and there are those on the right who truley admire Putin for his embrace of state religion, war on terror and anti-gay propaganda laws who would say this proves Obama is the devil and God has turned his back on the US.
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Posted By: oldsoldier
Date Posted: 02 March 2014 at 1:27am
Anyone remember Czechoslovakia in 1938? Appeasement, works everytime...
The Ukraine was a Soviet State, and now they want it back, imagine that. Is it worth going to war over, depends on whether you want to do it now or later more than likely.
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Posted By: rednekk98
Date Posted: 02 March 2014 at 3:51am
Even since I last posted my Ukraine contacts have been virally spreading emergency calls for military volunteers to be accepted immediately and put to work. Many of them have been involved in the uprising and many more have watched, but it looks like a shocking amount are going to the borders to dig anti-tank ditches tonight. Obama needs to resurrect the ghosts of JFK and Eisenhower to pull something off in the next 24 hours or less. This is that 3a.m. phone call.
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Posted By: tallen702
Date Posted: 02 March 2014 at 9:51am
For all intents and purposes, most of the Russian forces have moved back to their bases in at this point. Places like the gov't buildings in Simferopol are now completely devoid of soldiers, barricades, and pro-Russian civies. Reports with some solid facts are finally coming out of Crimean cities from non-propaganda sources, most of the pro-Russian "celebrations" shown online yesterday involved a repeated and very small crowd of Russian born retirees and their families. Russian troops still have at least one Ukrainian military base surrounded, but aren't making any moves. What's more, clergymen and civilians have started showing up and placing themselves between the lines in an added attempt to prevent a shooting war from starting. Currently, the Russians have ZERO armored cav on the ground. Everything thus far has been light motorized infantry (not even mech infantry, so no BMPs, etc, just trucks). Ukrainian forces are calmly making a show of force within the confines of their bases, merely lining up and standing guard, but not making any sorts of threats towards the Russians outside. I doubt the Ukrainian military will make the same mistake that Georgia did and fire the first shots. Everything Russia is doing at this point is quasi-legal with their military agreements concerning the Crimean peninsula and troop movements.
Meanwhile in Moscow, massive arrests are taking place as protesters are marching and demonstrating outside the Kremlin and regional gov't offices.
NATO and UN are pushing for international observers to be moved in very shortly. Even China is siding with the US/UK in the Security council meetings. Russia is standing alone on this one, I think they thought that China at the least would back them up, hence some hesitation today and no apparent moves towards the eastern part of the country.
Obama is a paper tiger on this one, he bluffed on the situation in Georgia, and he's bluffing here too. Putin knows it, but he's got to deal with other nations this time given the EU's interest in Ukraine.
If he was smart, he'd make a declaration of Article IV of the NATO charter and get Romania and Turkey to request US and UK Mediterranean fleets to come to their aid in ensuring that no spill-over happens in their waters and to secure the Bosporus. That would pin the Russian black-sea fleet in. Then get the Ukrainian gov't to request international observers in the Crimea which would allow US and UK troops to place military units in and around Simferopol and Sevastopol. This would cut the Russians off from all but one option, moving forces back to their bases and keeping them there, or pushing off for Novorossiysk which is their only other feasible port on the Black Sea. A carrier in the Bosporus or Romanian waters would provide flyover recon and deterrent to the Russians as well. Basically, all the US and UK (and EU for that matter) need to do is move into areas AROUND Ukraine, get permission to conduct observation missions, and essentially tell Putin to "back the eff off" without firing a shot. They do that, and he looks weak. We don't do that, and we look weak.
But Barry-O is a effing moron when it comes to foreign policy and will screw it up one way or another.
Honestly, I'm sick of pretty much all presidential options at this point. We need a strong, man's man leader again. Too much myopic focus on dithering things that don't really matter in this world in the elections have turned all our presidential hopefuls into panty-waisted slugs.
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Posted By: Mack
Date Posted: 02 March 2014 at 10:57am
Maybe the President is hoping that things will change for the better.
After all, if you like your current Ukrainian situation you will be able to keep it.
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Posted By: tallen702
Date Posted: 02 March 2014 at 11:39am
And Mack wins the internet for the week.
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Posted By: JohnnyCanuck
Date Posted: 02 March 2014 at 3:56pm
reminds me of a game of Diplomacy.
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Posted By: Rofl_Mao
Date Posted: 02 March 2014 at 6:08pm
Or Civ:
"The United States of America has denounced Russia, warning the rest of the world that they are not to be trusted!"
Sir, we have heard the
people of Sevastapol have deposed the governor of Ukraine and pledged
allegiance to the treacherous Russians! What shall we do?
_ Nothing.
_ Send diplomat.
X We must make them pay!
Sir, this will cause war with the Russian people. Are you sure?
_ No. You're right, perhaps we should re-consider.
X I said do it!
Sir, we have insufficient gold to continue supporting all our units.
X Disband
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Posted By: tallen702
Date Posted: 03 March 2014 at 12:05pm
Sitrep update:
Depending on which news sources you trust right now (R/T seems to have a lot of people linking to it, but it's nothing more than what Pravda was back in the USSR, a propaganda outlet) things are either somewhat grim, or very, very grim.
Here's what we do know:
NATO has officially stepped into the fray. Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia all invoked Article IV of the treaty which forces the alliance to meet in council over concerns by its adherents. This is only the 4th time in the history of NATO that Article IV has been invoked. The other three have been by Turkey, twice over the Syrian war and once over the Iraq war. Never in the history of the organization have three countries invoked Article IV at once. This is a pretty big issue for the organization, especially since it concerns the political and economic stability of a lot of our newer members.
I will not be surprised to see NATO take the role that Barry either can't or won't. My guess is that we'll see a build-up of NATO forces on the borders of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. I doubt they'll enter the country unless Russia makes a move to break out of the Crimea or push into eastern Ukraine, but a show of force needs to be made so that Putin isn't quite so sure of himself.
The naval commander who was just installed in that position by the new gov't a few days ago has surrendered to the Russian fleet at Sevastopol. There's been some pretty severe speculation that the orders he's issuing are under duress. R/T is saying that Ukrainian soldiers are defecting and that all of the army and AA bases in the peninsula are under Russian control now, but social network feeds prove otherwise. They're still standing firm and the clergy are still stationed between the Russians and the soldiers inside. Russia NEEDS those AA batteries to be inoperable if they're to make any further moves. Their CAS air frames are older, and easy targets for the AA systems.
The Ukraine has issued a direct request to the US, NATO, and EU for aid. Whether we actually give it is a different story, but Kerry is flying to Kyiv now, so that's something.
Ultimately Obama has forced our hand. He's used the "red line" and "line in the sand" play too much and has never back it up. Putin is calling his bluff this time, especially after seeing us do NOTHING to help Georgia out when they were under threat of annexation several years ago. This is why I think NATO will ultimately take the lead.
What I don't get is what Barry is so worried about. He doesn't have another election to win, so it doesn't matter politically if he commits to this militarily. I think, and a lot of other people do to, that he's simply weak in all aspects of his leadership. This is something that will come back to haunt Hillary in 2016. Bill was weak with Al Qaeda and Iraq. Obama has been weak with his foreign policy over the past 8 years, and people will connect the dots. There's a difference between distancing ourselves from being the "world police" and just appearing weak. This presidency has done only the latter.
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Posted By: evillepaintball
Date Posted: 03 March 2014 at 2:13pm
I was talking to my landlord about this tonight. He was saying that this could be the biggest war in Europe since WW2. I just wanted to tell him, "I hope this one goes better for you."
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Posted By: Mack
Date Posted: 03 March 2014 at 2:52pm
tallen702 wrote:
I will not be surprised to see NATO take the role that Barry either can't or won't. |
Then NATO could conceivably save him from part of his legacy being known as the guy who made ineffectual threats while Russia resurrected the USSR?
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Posted By: oldsoldier
Date Posted: 03 March 2014 at 3:33pm
I have a recent Russian immigrant friend and he stated to me in conversation with me that there are too many in Russian politics today as well as people that want a return to the old Soviet system, and methodology. Stalinism is becoming 'trendy' again according to him. One of the reasons he left with his family his hometown was far too nationalist for him, if you did not agree with basically 'The Party' you were let's say noticed and some form of 'discrimination' was authorized by the locals. He served in the old Soviet armed forces as an Officer Cadet and the constant teachings was how to make war on the west, politically as well as militarily.
I can see a conventional war between NATO eastern countries and the Russians over this, no one is crazy enough to throw nukes or chemicals, the political and natural 'fallout' will be to great on whoever throws first for whatever reason. Will the Brits and US get involved, depends on how this situation expands, the French as usual will stay out of it, The Germans...well they may want another crack at the Russians, a lot of bad blood there.
Obama is the Chamberlain of our time, totally clueless and sees himself as the great mediator as Chamberlain did. The Russian people and Putin are laughing at his efforts, and his lack of 'intestinal fortitude' on this issue. Welcome to 1938 again, just the names have changed, the methods...not so much.
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Posted By: Rofl_Mao
Date Posted: 03 March 2014 at 5:36pm
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http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/721751" rel="nofollow - Apparently Russia is conducting exercises next to the Baltic nations now, which includes 3500 Russian personnel.
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Posted By: tallen702
Date Posted: 04 March 2014 at 10:15am
Rofl_Mao wrote:
http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/721751" rel="nofollow - Apparently Russia is conducting exercises next to the Baltic nations now, which includes 3500 Russian personnel.
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Yep, which is why Poland, Latvia and Lithuania (All newer NATO members) invoked Article IV of the charter. It's an attempt by Russia to tie up NATO forces along a long front in an effort to prevent them from being able to make a concentrated stand on the borders of Ukraine much like we did with the first Iraq War when we built up along the borders in Saudi Arabia in response to the invasion of Kuwait.
Now that things have had a day or two to settle in down in the Crimea, things aren't looking like they'll go as easily as Putin had hoped. Ukraine hasn't risen to the bait at this point. To that point, some "contractors" tossed flashbangs at some Ukrainian soldiers guarding an AAA battery the other day in an attempt to provoke a retaliation. The Ukrainian soldiers didn't bite. One soldier fired a shot in the air (one single round) to signal to his mates that they were under threat, but that seemed to be enough to make the Ruskies back off as they hurried back out of range. One soldier is still being treated for the concussive effects, but otherwise is fine.
Reports of Ukrainian soldiers deserting are more than grossly overstated, they're patently false. So far, nobody is handing over their weapons, and when the former rear admiral who turned turncoat the other day addressed his former comrades and gave them an ultimatum to stand down, they responded by singing the Ukrainian national anthem until he and his Russian handlers went away.
Here's where Putin miscalculated and it's going to hurt him the longer this drags out. Russians see themselves as "brothers" where Ukrainians are concerned. All the propaganda in Russia over the years saying how Ukraine wanted to rejoin them, etc. etc. etc. has taken hold, but on the wrong people. The ethnic Ukrainians still see Russians as a conquering force to be despised, but Russians see Ukrainians as "prodigal sons" who are virtually their own countrymen. Many, many Russian soldiers currently stationed in Crimea have told reporters that if they're given the order to attack, they simply won't do it. They've been there long enough to see that there simply aren't any right-wing anarchists and neo-nazis looking to wage genocide on ethnic Russians, which is the whole premise for them being there in the first place according to Moscow.
The issue at hand now isn't so much 'what if' in regards to Russia expanding their hold into the eastern part of the country, it's now a question of "how do they get it back" in regards to the Ukraine and the Crimea. Russia has shown with South Ossetia that they will happily maintain a military presence in any breakaway region which wishes to join the federation no matter how illegal it may be to do so. They're even more likely to do so in the Crimea given the strategic importance of the blue water ports.
So long as the Ukrainian soldiers hold on to those AAA bases, Russia can't gain air superiority. Without air superiority, they can't open overland routes to their bases at Simferopol or Sevastopol. Without those overland routes, they can't move in armor and artillery. Without armor and artillery, they can't conduct a successful campaign. They need air superiority and armor if they ever hope to move in from the east. If they cross the border into Eastern Ukraine NATO will likely respond to the request from Kiev for armed intervention and move up via Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and Poland while the Ukrainian armored divisions and Su-27s and MiG-29's pick off what the AAA batteries didn't nail. Then their Su-25's will hammer the armor and supply lines stalling the attack enough for NATO to join the fray. Meanwhile Turkey would have a field day bombing the hell out of the bases at Simferopol and Sevastopol and sinking anything that tried to supply the Crimean Peninsula via the few Russian ports on the Black Sea.
Putin simply can't afford to start a shooting war in Ukraine that NATO would get involved in.
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Posted By: Rofl_Mao
Date Posted: 18 March 2014 at 10:29am
Welp, Putin is annexing Crimea. US, Canada, and the EU imposed sanctions on Russia.
Let's see what O'bama is going to do about this... probably nothing.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26630062" rel="nofollow - http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26630062
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Posted By: impulse418
Date Posted: 18 March 2014 at 12:36pm
If they plan on economic sanctions, tis fine. Everyone has already pulled their respective currencies out of foreign soil.
The currency wars are heating up.
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Posted By: tallen702
Date Posted: 18 March 2014 at 5:03pm
We haven't actually hit them with trade sanctions yet. Just frozen individual accounts/funds of the head honchos in Russia. The big thing right now is that all the banks in Crimea are out of money. To the point that the runs on them have pretty much collapsed them. Russia says they'll back the money, but the Ruble is dropping (despite a couple of come back thanks to $23B spent from reserves to prop it up) and at the current rate that Putin and his reserves are spending dollars to prop it up, if this thing goes on for more than a couple more month, Russia will really start to feel the crunch.
Turkey has done exactly what I said they'd do. They're blockading the Bosporus.
Meanwhile Romania is getting even more nervous, and as a full member of NATO, they've got enough sway to bring in the military might to back up the sanctions.
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Posted By: usafpilot07
Date Posted: 19 March 2014 at 3:46am
But I thought Russia said that 98% of Crimeans want to be part of Russia
" https://twitter.com/BreakingNews" rel="nofollow - - @BreakingNews https://twitter.com/BreakingNews/status/446185111089082368" rel="nofollow - - 22m Crimea self-defense forces storm Ukrainian navy headquarters in Sevastopol, AP photographer reports - https://twitter.com/AP" rel="nofollow -
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Posted By: tallen702
Date Posted: 19 March 2014 at 1:20pm
Apparently a Ukrainian soldier has been shot by un-marked assailants when they attempted to storm a Ukrainian military base. Luckily, nobody has retaliated as of yet, but I have a feeling that people in the area of Crimea are going to regret going all pro-russkie when the bombs and artillery start dropping.
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Posted By: impulse418
Date Posted: 15 April 2014 at 3:55pm
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http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-brink-civil-war-russian-pm-144443553.html" rel="nofollow - http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-brink-civil-war-russian-pm-144443553.html
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Posted By: Eville
Date Posted: 15 April 2014 at 4:02pm
"I will be brief: Ukraine is on the brink of civil war, it's frightening," the country's former president was quoted as saying* by Russian news agencies.
*while trying in vain to hide a giant erection
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Posted By: impulse418
Date Posted: 29 August 2014 at 4:42pm
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Things have escalated quickly.
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Posted By: tallen702
Date Posted: 31 August 2014 at 9:32pm
impulse418 wrote:
Things have escalated quickly.
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Yup.
I think it's mainly because the Ukrainian Army has been on the offensive and rather effective over the past few months. Russian forces are being caught out in the open and taken captive proving their involvement. Now heads in the US Senate are calling for us to arm the Ukrainians with better weaponry to push Russia out and crush any agitators.

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Posted By: StormyKnight
Date Posted: 02 September 2014 at 4:00pm
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At least it isn't anything to lose your head over...
...again.
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