Now they have done it.

Great. Another pretext for Russia to launch a bloody, catastrophic, and ultimately ineffective 'counterinsurgency' (if you can call massacring civilians that).

oldsoldier wrote: The IUslamic radicals have awakened the Russian Bear,

Link? I haven't heard anything about this.

EDIT: Found this.

But I also found out about a train derailment that was considered terrorism that happened last year. What makes you believe that this will cause more of a reaction?

RE-EDIT: Just found out Chechen terrorists are Islamic, and Russian response to Chechen attacks has been horrific; the more you know...


Edited by Gatyr - 29 March 2010 at 7:41pm

Gatyr wrote: oldsoldier wrote: The IUslamic radicals have awakened the Russian Bear, Link? I haven't heard anything about this.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&oi=news_result&ct=res&cd=1&ved=0CAYQqQIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fworldnews%2Feurope%2Frussia%2F7535951%2FMoscow-bombing-Russia-braced-for-new-wave-of-terror-attacks.html&rct=j&q=attack+in+russia&ei=ITGxS_WeJIGclge1vvG6AQ&usg=AFQjCNH02SZE4LmcWe2Gr-qhAZ5iyQoSpg


Edited by usafpilot07 - 29 March 2010 at 7:02pm

oldsoldier wrote: BY all accounts Putin has put the Military as well as Law Enforcement into erradicate mode. And yes the innocent will suffer as with the guilty in a typical Russian 'Purge' of the Islamic Terror Threat within Mother Russia. Russian Nationalism is in full swing, the media is in full support mode, and the traditional Russian patriotic music is again blaring on the streets. Any try to 'hold back' the Russian intelligence services (the old KGB types) or the Russian Military by diplomacy will fall on deaf ears, there will be a typical Russian approach to an attack on 'Mother Russia'.

Eerily similar to some other country, ya?

And I don't think Russia will go to Afghanistan to flex their muscle while the US and UN have troops there. I imagine they would be greatly limited on what they could do versus what they wanted to do if there are Europeans/American in the way.

I'm pretty sure the likelihood of the Russians going into Afghanistan right now is minimal.

That said, I see a high chance of lots of dead Chechans in the coming months.

My brother just posted this on another forum we frequent, thought some might be interested in it:

BloodBane611 wrote: I'm currently taking a course with one of the few western experts on the Soviet/Russian intelligence services who has actually studied in the the russian archives, and of course we got to talking about this today. It's a tragic situation, and I'm sad to see civilians caught in the crossfire, but in the next few days/weeks there will certainly be deadly reprisals by the FSB and possibly other Russian agencies. Violence on the part of resistance fighters has always been met with violence from the Russian government, and not just since 1917. I'm not very interested in giving a Russian history lesson, but violent reprisals have been a huge part of Russian governance at least since the time of Ivan the Terrible and the oprichnina, and a case could be made that they started before that. Specifically on the Chechen question, violence against the chechens (and many other ethnic groups) became an intrinsic national policy during the Second World War, with the deportation of at least half a million Chechens, a deportation which included mass killings and widespread attempts to destroy chechen culture through the destruction of chechen libraries (source - pp 39-40 is most relevant, but the entire paper is quite interesting for those who care). This was a state security operation with the express purpose of destroying chechen rebel groups opposed to soviet rule in Chechnya, and who were supported by the broad majority of the population. This deportation operation was of course followed by the importation of ethnic russians, who were not considered a security threat. The fact that there are still 100,000 ethnic russians in Chechnya should surprise no one, as they were put in place by the Soviet government to create a stable and reliable base of support in the country. I do agree that the FSB has been reasonably successful in preventing terrorist acts against russia (as was the KGB and the other soviet intelligence services before them), but the cost in terms of human lives has historically been very high. Of course the FSB is not going to publish a list of the people it assassinates in order to prevent terrorist attacks, but assassinations continue to be an important part of FSB operations (for example, the assassination of Alexander Litvinenko in London). Ultimately, the question is whether these terrorists represent the legitimate feelings of the Chechens or not. I do think that question has not been fully answered, and that we don't have the kind of objective information required to actually answer it. Certainly the Russian government (and Russian backed Chechen government) have an interest in maintaining the appearance of broad based support for their government (which may or may not be real), but the Chechen people are not in outright rebellion. I do think that the Chechen President, Ramzan Kadyrov, is one serious *person*, and the fact is that he was installed by the personal fiat of Putin rather than by a democratic vote. While that doesn't lead me to believe that the Chechen people are necessarily against being part of Russia, they certainly are not being ruled in a democratic way.

Edited by ParielIsBack - 30 March 2010 at 1:12pm

Facepalm.jpg


You know, this doesn't happen very often, so mark it on your calendars. I'm going to say it. Pariell is right.

The Russians becoming involved militarily in Afghanistan is about as likely as us getting involved militarily in Vietnam right now. For starters, they learned their lesson down there over a period of a decade or so the hard way. They ultimately ran into the same problems that we've been running into which is that fighting in Afghanistan is a protracted siege on natural fortifications (mountains) which costs a hell of a lot of men and material to win.

Secondly, the bombings didn't come from the AQ/Taliban. They were initiated by the Chechen separatists. How do we know this when it hasn't been confirmed in the media? Well, it was two women suicide bombers (a Chechen calling card) attacking the Lubyanka and Palace of Culture stations (the FSB [formerly KGB] is stationed in/around Lubyanka) through the rail transit system (again a Chechen calling card). What this is ultimately going to mean is that the FSB and Spetsnaz are going to be a bit busier than usual. If anything, I would expect Russia to be particularly scrutinizing of Georgia as it's about the only place the Chechen rebels have to run. If anything, I think you'll see a few strategic missile strikes by the Russians at suspected Chechen holdouts, and possibly a raid or two if they find any high-priority targets of intelligence.

Your resident Russophile,
Tallen702
/thread

tallen702 wrote: You know, this doesn't happen very often, so mark it on your calendars. I'm going to say it. Pariell is right.

I'ma need everyone to make big signs and celebrate this event with cake for at least the next coupla years.