Ukraine (Get in here Tallen)

Most of the country wanted to become more aligned with the West, with a smaller percentage including the president wanting to continue to be under Putins sphere of influence. Protesters oust president, hang out in his former house, with about 3/4 of the population supporting that. President exiles in Russia, then old Vladimir sends in some troops to take over an airport and surrounding area.

Best part is the Russian military isn't identifying themselves at all. News filming them and everything, no name tapes or insignia. Those meddling kids in the west and their Internet are preventing some Prague Spring type of stuff.

1) Western (especially US) media is overstating the situation of Russians in the Crimea. ABC and AP are both saying that the Russians "invaded" but they haven't. In fact, Russia hasn't sent any additional soldiers into the Crimea since Yanukovych was ousted. The legality for their presence is pretty solid at the moment. Russia rents its naval base in Sevastopol from Ukraine as well as two air stations in the peninsula as well. According to their agreement, Russian forces can come and go as they please within the Crimea, much like US forces were allowed free reign in Cuba from the base at Gitmo prior to the revolution down there. The Russians haven't forcibly taken anything, haven't declared the territory to now be "theirs" they're just sitting there, waiting.

2) The moment that the constitution is ratified and open elections are held, the Ukraine's military will jump back into the fray on the side of whoever wins and they aren't pushovers like the Georgia was in 2008. Despite the fact that the Crimean Russians will piss and moan and threaten secession, there will be a stable, trained, and well armed military in place which will be able to tell the Ruskies to scram. Furthermore, the UN is likely to take a really sharp interest in Russia's meddling in the affairs, especially since it's in direct violation of the Budapest Memorandum. Russia is using the work around of claiming that "Ethnic Russians" are in danger, but that's not going to hold water. For one thing, nobody has threatened action against them and for another, they're Ukrainian citizens, international law only provides for legal intervention if citizens of your country are in danger, not just people who have a historical tie to you are.

3) If Russia pushes any further, they'll find themselves involved in a shooting war that they can't afford. Ukraine is BIG. It's got a big population, the majority of whom are ethnic Ukrainian, and that same majority remembers the deportations, genocide, and mass starvation that Moscow perpetuated less than a century ago, and it's got a sizable and well equipped military. If this turns into a shooting war, it's going to get messy. The Chechens and Daegestanis already proved the relative weakness of the Russian military. An organized and modern military like the on in Ukraine will be a much tougher nut to crack, and in doing so, Russia will open themselves up to a re-start to the Chechen and Georgian wars. They'll be spread too thin and someone will take advantage of that fact.

4) Russia wants two things out of Ukraine. The use of the Black Sea ports for its navy, and someone to buy their gas and oil. If they go too far, then they'll get neither. Ukraine is a partnership country with NATO. While they can't invoke the charter, they can ask for help. If NATO and the UN both get involved, Russia will lose the Black Sea ports and the fuel sales both, negating any attempts to hold onto those things (which is what they're doing now).

And Tallen once again proves he knows what's what. I don't really have much to add that tallen hasn't already, infact I learned a lot of things from his post that I wasn't aware of before, but it definitely got messy fast. A actually know somebody who lives in Kiev, one of my sisters best friends from growing up. Her father got a really, REALLY well paying engineering job over there. He recently has come down with leukemia and they had to be evacuated when the protests started up. I just hope the situation resolves itself at least enough that he can get back over there and back to work ASAP, so that at least if the unfortunate happens in his situation, he will at least make A LOT of money for the family. I mean A LOT of money, they will be set, so a lot is riding on this for them.

It's been great to see this from both the Ukrainian and Russian side on social media since I have a few dozen friends on the book of face from both countries and many are politically involved to a point that puts most in the US to shame.

Cynical American Interpretation-Russia is attempting to do this quick and set up a situation on the ground that will potentially give them the Crimea by referendum considering the new laws they pushed through and tight control of media they have been able to achieve. They have legal authority from their legislature to go much farther considering that they are still recognizing the ousted President and have been creating a boogeyman out of right-wing factions in Ukraine. My gut reaction is that they will settle from some solid promises for respecting the base at Sevastopol, provided they think a candidate they think they can work with will win in the New Elections, but if the West dithers, they will annex the crap out of Crimea, and the west will probably be relieved they didn't take half the country. My bet is they get Crimea quasi-legally within the next 6 months as a best-case scenario.

Russian Putin-Youth Interpretation- Ukraine has always been aligned with Russia, but during a weakening of the Empire was overrun by Muslims, Western Europeans and others uncivilized factions, especially in the west and was corrupted. During WWII Western Ukraine sided with the Nazis (forgetting holodomor)and although some of the protestors seemed centrist, the ultra-right is really in control and wants to smash minorities everywhere and expel or otherwise eliminate ethnic Russians. The recently released former PM is a CIA operative but might be turned, and the revolution was a coup. The Berkut only fired to stay alive, or it was a false-flag CIA directed action by the opposition to blame the President. The new government is illegal, fascist-leaning, and weak. The sooner it is dealt with, the better. The protestors hired Moldovans for $30 a day to man the protest lines and the whole thing was Astroturfed. The West is offering about 20% of what Mother Russia is offering in aid, how can they be serious? The election of a new leader in the semi-autonomous Crimea at gunpoint was a fair turn considering the armed insurrection at the Maidan, is the most legitimate government in place in Ukraine. If Russia leaves, neo-nazis will beat WWII vets to death in Crimea. Annexation is the safest bet if Ukraine doesn't immediately make sever concessions and accept Russian aid, since the IMF will only give them predatory loans and West-Ukrainians will end up being plumbers and day-laborers for the West when they could be professionals in the Russian sphere.

Ethnically-Confused Ukrainian Interpretation- There was hope in the Orange revolution, leaders since then have been corrupt, the EU and US don't care too much, the right-wing is scary and a shady ally at best, war now would be a route, the economy is about to tank. New faces are untested, old faces are tainted, mom and dad's cars were burned as barriers, they can't go to work, who knows when the paychecks will stop or the gas will get cut off. Nobody knows what the military will do if tested. They feel more Ukrainian than ever, but without real acceptance by Europe or any idea of what it means to be European today, or what side is likely to extricate them from the problems that are coming fast. If the West doesn't help fast and seriously, they can always try again in 20 years....They'll take the best deal they can get, even if it means losing territory.

Summary-Putin has Ukraine in check. Unless we can offer them LNG in enough quantity, maybe drop in an airborne division as "observers" and pull some Kennedy-era stuff off, Russia gets as much as we let them, if we really miff it, they reinstate the ousted President, go back to earlier negotiations under occupation (Russian Federation "peacekeepers" and "election monitors") and the whole revolution is doomed to die a slow, quiet, death. What the Russians really want is gas sales and the Crimea bases and at least more autonomy for the regions with large Russian populations that could lead to easy annexation in the event of any further "trouble". Russia knows we are too broke to seriously piss them off with going back to the missile defense plans, and returning to that would just prove their point that it was aimed at them, not Iran. If Obama really has balls, he'd send tankers full of LNG with destroyer escort to aid since we've been fracking our brains out and try to establish ourselves as energy exporters, and offer aid with few strings to Ukraine. I'm betting his hands are too tied to do so from many angles, and there are those on the right who truley admire Putin for his embrace of state religion, war on terror and anti-gay propaganda laws who would say this proves Obama is the devil and God has turned his back on the US.

Even since I last posted my Ukraine contacts have been virally spreading emergency calls for military volunteers to be accepted immediately and put to work. Many of them have been involved in the uprising and many more have watched, but it looks like a shocking amount are going to the borders to dig anti-tank ditches tonight. Obama needs to resurrect the ghosts of JFK and Eisenhower to pull something off in the next 24 hours or less. This is that 3a.m. phone call.

Maybe the President is hoping that things will change for the better.

After all, if you like your current Ukrainian situation you will be able to keep it.

 

reminds me of a game of Diplomacy.

Sitrep update:

Depending on which news sources you trust right now (R/T seems to have a lot of people linking to it, but it's nothing more than what Pravda was back in the USSR, a propaganda outlet) things are either somewhat grim, or very, very grim.

Here's what we do know:

NATO has officially stepped into the fray. Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia all invoked Article IV of the treaty which forces the alliance to meet in council over concerns by its adherents. This is only the 4th time in the history of NATO that Article IV has been invoked. The other three have been by Turkey, twice over the Syrian war and once over the Iraq war. Never in the history of the organization have three countries invoked Article IV at once. This is a pretty big issue for the organization, especially since it concerns the political and economic stability of a lot of our newer members.

I will not be surprised to see NATO take the role that Barry either can't or won't. My guess is that we'll see a build-up of NATO forces on the borders of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. I doubt they'll enter the country unless Russia makes a move to break out of the Crimea or push into eastern Ukraine, but a show of force needs to be made so that Putin isn't quite so sure of himself.

The naval commander who was just installed in that position by the new gov't a few days ago has surrendered to the Russian fleet at Sevastopol. There's been some pretty severe speculation that the orders he's issuing are under duress. R/T is saying that Ukrainian soldiers are defecting and that all of the army and AA bases in the peninsula are under Russian control now, but social network feeds prove otherwise. They're still standing firm and the clergy are still stationed between the Russians and the soldiers inside. Russia NEEDS those AA batteries to be inoperable if they're to make any further moves. Their CAS air frames are older, and easy targets for the AA systems.

The Ukraine has issued a direct request to the US, NATO, and EU for aid. Whether we actually give it is a different story, but Kerry is flying to Kyiv now, so that's something.

Ultimately Obama has forced our hand. He's used the "red line" and "line in the sand" play too much and has never back it up. Putin is calling his bluff this time, especially after seeing us do NOTHING to help Georgia out when they were under threat of annexation several years ago. This is why I think NATO will ultimately take the lead.

What I don't get is what Barry is so worried about. He doesn't have another election to win, so it doesn't matter politically if he commits to this militarily. I think, and a lot of other people do to, that he's simply weak in all aspects of his leadership. This is something that will come back to haunt Hillary in 2016. Bill was weak with Al Qaeda and Iraq. Obama has been weak with his foreign policy over the past 8 years, and people will connect the dots. There's a difference between distancing ourselves from being the "world police" and just appearing weak. This presidency has done only the latter.

tallen702 wrote: I will not be surprised to see NATO take the role that Barry either can't or won't.

Then NATO could conceivably save him from part of his legacy being known as the guy who made ineffectual threats while Russia resurrected the USSR?

Apparently Russia is conducting exercises next to the Baltic nations now, which includes 3500 Russian personnel.