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The 2016 election.
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Reb Cpl View Drop Down
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Something I've been pondering since 'the event' that I'm curious to get some opinions on, particularly from Whale, having sort of an inside line on this.

Given the reports leading up to the election that pretty much had the wheels falling off of the Trump campaign and Clinton having it all but in the bag, would this not indicate at least some shred of a bias within the 'mainstream' media outlets?
The idea that the reports from the largest and seemingly most credible sources simply got it wrong seems like too much a stretch for me.

I know that the concept of a media bias is both:
A: a talking point for the right and
B: dismissed as silliness and paranoia from the left.

But could there be a granule of truth to the conspiracy theory now that there was a massive rug pulled out from millions of people who were able to sleep better at night (by their own words in some cases) knowing that Trump didn't have a chance?

I fully understand Trump's negative press this cycle- he gave 'the press' more ammo than they ever needed, so that's not the issue. The issue is that even with that, his win came off as a surprise to a LOT of people. How?
?
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I actually came in here to post "Did Trump kill the forum?" 

Glad to see someone posted. I've seen a lot of the "people didn't want to admit to pollsters they were going to vote for Trump." But, today, I saw a theory that resonates a little more true to me. 

It wasn't that pollsters focused on the wrong areas, or that pollees lied to pollsters. The idea was that eventual Trump voters were much more likely to decline to be polled AT ALL. Possibly because of the resentment towards a perceived dishonesty in the process itself. Much like Trump is a grenade that many wanted thrown into the works of the establishment, many who would end up supporting him refused to participate in what they saw as simply another arm of a machine they didn't trust, and didn't want to be a part of.

I can't remember where I saw it, and it was mostly just a theory, but it still seems more likely to me than 3 or 4 points(or more in some cases) worth of people out and out lying to a stranger about their intended vote.
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How did everyone's local elections turn out. Legal weed didn't pass here, but raising the minimum wage to $15 did. Sherrif Joe Arpaio of Maricopa county was finally voted out, good riddance.
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Originally posted by impulse418 impulse418 wrote:

How did everyone's local elections turn out. Legal weed didn't pass here, but raising the minimum wage to $15 did. Sherrif Joe Arpaio of Maricopa county was finally voted out, good riddance.

Ours are.... getting complicated.
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Reb Cpl View Drop Down
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Originally posted by usafpilot07 usafpilot07 wrote:

I actually came in here to post "Did Trump kill the forum?" 

Glad to see someone posted. I've seen a lot of the "people didn't want to admit to pollsters they were going to vote for Trump." But, today, I saw a theory that resonates a little more true to me. 

It wasn't that pollsters focused on the wrong areas, or that pollees lied to pollsters. The idea was that eventual Trump voters were much more likely to decline to be polled AT ALL. Possibly because of the resentment towards a perceived dishonesty in the process itself. Much like Trump is a grenade that many wanted thrown into the works of the establishment, many who would end up supporting him refused to participate in what they saw as simply another arm of a machine they didn't trust, and didn't want to be a part of.

I can't remember where I saw it, and it was mostly just a theory, but it still seems more likely to me than 3 or 4 points(or more in some cases) worth of people out and out lying to a stranger about their intended vote.


That does make sense, I hadn't read that yet.

Thank you.

Also- does anyone else have facebook friends who are blaming misogyny for Clinton's loss, then in the next breath attacking Jill Stein voters, or is that just me?
?
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Originally posted by Reb Cpl Reb Cpl wrote:

Also- does anyone else have facebook friends who are blaming misogyny for Clinton's loss, then in the next breath attacking Jill Stein voters, or is that just me?


Not outright blaming misogyny, but I've seen a lot of hate for third party/independent voters.
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Originally posted by Reb Cpl Reb Cpl wrote:


Also- does anyone else have facebook friends who are blaming misogyny for Clinton's loss, then in the next breath attacking Jill Stein voters, or is that just me?


Misogyny, bigotry, racism, choose your favorite label and apply broadly.

My favorite are the ones who blame Johnson. You know, the guy who pulls from the Republicans far more than the Dems. Had Johnson not run, Trump would still be in, AND likely would have taken the popular vote as well.

I hate to say it because I come off sounding like a Breitbart reader, but the protesters and whiners just need to chill. Yes, there were whiners the past 8 years from the GOP, but they settled down pretty quickly (and didn't riot from what I can remember). These guys today though.... ugh.....
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Well, on the upside, you can't blame me, I'm from Massachusetts, and I get to tell my decidedly more traditional liberal friends from NYC that I was right during the primaries. My ideal outcome was a Hilary win followed by an impeachment and a caretaker presidency and another open election if Kaine didn't run, which he shouldn't have, while the parties did a serious gut-check and realigned for the 21st century. 

I'm not ready to call Trump voters racists, I'm willing to admit that prior to the birther nonsense Trump seemed like a social moderate. But even if he had been treated unfairly by the media, who is left on the Republican side that wants to associate with this mess except the people who heard he was racist and decided they might just have a lot to talk about? Even so, his supporters own the racists and proto-fascist hangers on and need to visibly and loudly disown it. 

 He pissed off the free-trade Republicans, he pissed off the ones who wanted an outreach to growing demographics, he pissed off the interventionalist neocons, his fuzzy understanding of the constitution is going to piss off the Libertarian wing. He might be able to work with progressive Dems on investment in infrastructure or other economically populist ideas, old school neo-liberals are ready to stonewall and hope everything gets worse so they can win later. This is shaping up to be an administration made of the worst policy of every faction or a terrible reality-show of theater and nonsense while opportunists loot the treasury. This could be our equivalent of a post-soviet kleptocracy in the making. 

If anything unifying comes of this, it's going to be that the blue states start liking the 10th amendment more and minority groups might just start liking the 2nd amendment if these entitled sore-winners keep trying up public taunts. Worst case scenario: A decade of near fascism followed by a near Maoist cultural-revolution. 
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Originally posted by Reb Cpl Reb Cpl wrote:


Given the reports leading up to the election that pretty much had the wheels falling off of the Trump campaign and Clinton having it all but in the bag, would this not indicate at least some shred of a bias within the 'mainstream' media outlets?
 

I generally think it's more indicative of ineffective/incorrect polling than it is the media coverage itself. The narrative of Clinton's lead going into the election wasn't made up out of think air -- traditionally effective polling was showing her ahead, and that was a news story. 

I think the important question is figuring out why the polling was so off. What about the methods/questions/system ended up not working. Even historically more conservative polls were showing a Trump loss. I think only LA Times/USC managed to call it somewhat correct. 

Quote
I know that the concept of a media bias is both:
A: a talking point for the right and
B: dismissed as silliness and paranoia from the left.
 

It's also probably important to note that "media bias" is an extremely complicated, multi-layered issue with tons of conflating causes and ways in which in manifests. 
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Originally posted by usafpilot07 usafpilot07 wrote:


It wasn't that pollsters focused on the wrong areas, or that pollees lied to pollsters. The idea was that eventual Trump voters were much more likely to decline to be polled AT ALL. Possibly because of the resentment towards a perceived dishonesty in the process itself. Much like Trump is a grenade that many wanted thrown into the works of the establishment, many who would end up supporting him refused to participate in what they saw as simply another arm of a machine they didn't trust, and didn't want to be a part of.

I can't remember where I saw it, and it was mostly just a theory, but it still seems more likely to me than 3 or 4 points(or more in some cases) worth of people out and out lying to a stranger about their intended vote.

It's also important to note that, effectively, Clinton lost this election more than Trump won it. Trump didn't win a popular vote, and won the Electoral College with fewer popular votes than Romney lost with in 2012. 

A lot of Clinton voters in rust belt states stayed home or only voted down ballot. These are a large group of people who voted for Obama twice and then didn't vote at all for president -- namely working-class union voters. 
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Forum's Noam Chomsky

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Originally posted by Reb Cpl Reb Cpl wrote:

 
Also- does anyone else have facebook friends who are blaming misogyny for Clinton's loss, then in the next breath attacking Jill Stein voters, or is that just me?

Yes. They're all dodos. 

The DNC running a conservative boring milquetoast candidate who half the country has hated for 20 years is what cost them the election, not the like 24 people across the country who voted for Jill Stein. 

More people left the presidential spot blank in Michigan than voted for Jill Stein. She's a non-factor, but centralist Democrats are content punching left. 

The good news is that hopefully, Democrats will realized that their continued middle-ground politics caused them to lose to a brain-dead game show host, and everyone associated with the Clinton campaign, and all the current DNC leadership, will be shown the door in favor actual left politicians. 




Edited by agentwhale007 - 18 November 2016 at 12:50pm
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Forum's Noam Chomsky

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Originally posted by usafpilot07 usafpilot07 wrote:

On a somewhat related note, the Democratic party needs to make some moves, fast. They've got a pretty light bullpen of anyone they can hang their hat on and start grooming as challengers in 2020/2024, and if the Trump election DOES actually get the GOP to revamp their branding/strategy/etc and the Dems don't move to head them off for the youth vote? Things could get interesting.

I keep trying to respond to this, and the filter keeps eating it so: 




Edited by agentwhale007 - 18 November 2016 at 12:59pm
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Originally posted by agentwhale007 agentwhale007 wrote:





I keep trying to respond to this, and the filter keeps eating it so: 






That's an interesting statistic. Have you researched how 18-24 year old voters voted in previous elections? I would like to see if the quote "If you are not a liberal at 25, you have no heart. If you are not a conservative at 35, you have no brain" holds any merit. I wonder if this current group of 18 - 24 year olds continue to stay blue, or if they shift towards conservatism after they start getting real world experience.

Also, holy multipost Batman. Someone should report you to the mods.
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^^ What percentage of the voters made up the 18-24 year olds, that graph is is interesting.  I wonder if it shows that age bracket had a low voter turn-out.
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What goes around comes around. Michelle lost her job to an immigrant....go figure.
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Originally posted by agentwhale007 agentwhale007 wrote:



The good news is that hopefully, Democrats will realized that their continued middle-ground politics caused them to lose to a brain-dead game show host, and everyone associated with the Clinton campaign, and all the current DNC leadership, will be shown the door in favor actual left politicians. 





Whale, "middle ground politics" had nothing to do with HRC losing. Forcing a candidate on the people caused them to lose. Everyone knew Clinton was full of BS, from primary rigging to Podesta emails to contributions from foreign countries. Leftist hysteria in the news made it worse. One candidate lied, cheated, took money from anyone, and outright paid people to fight people on reddit. If the other candidate farted it made the news.

My favorite was when DJT asked Hillary how she can stand up for women and gays yet take 30 million dollars from a country that stones women and throw homosexuals off rooftops. The next morning every news outlet repeated Trump's stupid statement about accepting the election results. That is bias.

Trump energized people who knew HRC didn't care about anyone but herself.

Edit: Whale, I love you but I expect better from you. Trump isn't a textbook fascist.

Edited by SSOK - 19 November 2016 at 12:19am
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Originally posted by Hairball!!! Hairball!!! wrote:

[QUOTE=Reb Cpl] I've seen a lot of hate for third party/independent voters.
I have to say this was the first time talking to friends from the left and right that they said voting third party is voting for Clinton/Trump.  Made me chuckle.
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Originally posted by SSOK SSOK wrote:


Whale, "middle ground politics" had nothing to do with HRC losing.
 

The filter is still eating my posts. If someone knows what I am doing wrong here, please tell me. 

Anywhere, he's my response in image form: 
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Originally posted by JohnnyCanuck JohnnyCanuck wrote:

^^ What percentage of the voters made up the 18-24 year olds, that graph is is interesting.  I wonder if it shows that age bracket had a low voter turn-out.

Originally posted by deadeye007 deadeye007 wrote:

 Have you researched how 18-24 year old voters voted in previous elections?
 

Both interesting questions. I am going to try to find the answer out. Most of the data is cut by percentage of actual voters without vote count, but I shall dig into it. 
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Whale, have any of your students ditched class to be in their "safe places" after the election?
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